Life expectancy gains may be slowing for current generations
There are signs that the steady increases in life expectancy seen throughout the 20th century may be slowing for people born after 1939, a new international study published in PNAS has found. Using six different forecasting methods, researchers examined data from 23 high-income countries and consistently found a significant deceleration in gains for current cohorts — especially for those born between 1939 and 2000.
Historically, life expectancy for birth cohorts improved by about 0.46 years per cohort, the study said. However, the new forecasts suggest that the pace of improvement has slowed by 37% to 52%, depending on the method used. Gains are now estimated to be as low as 0.22 years per cohort in some cases.
The primary reason for the slowdown appears to be a diminished rate of improvement in mortality at very young ages, especially under age 5. These improvements were previously a major driver of overall life expectancy gains. Over half of the deceleration is attributed to slowed progress in reducing early-childhood mortality.
While some experts had hoped that life expectancy could continue rising linearly — or even reach 100 years for certain cohorts — this study challenges that optimism.
“Our findings suggest that the current deceleration is largely attributable to the slower pace of improvement at very young ages, a development that has already occurred for all the cohorts included in our analysis,” the authors wrote.
The researchers cautioned that while medical advances and social changes could still positively impact longevity, these changes may not be enough to reverse the broader trend of slowing gains.
Read more: PNAS
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