Long-term mortality from tropical storms may be high

A study has found that tropical cyclones may have a greater death toll years after impact than previous government estimates in the contiguous United States.

In the study, published in Nature, investigators examined the long-term mortality rates following 501 tropical cyclones that occurred between 1930 and 2015. They then analyzed the maximum wind speeds for each of the storms.

While government statistics reported about 24 immediate deaths caused by each tropical cyclone, the investigators found that the average storm resulted in 7,000 to 11,000 excess deaths. Tropical cyclone-related mortality persisted for up to 15 years following each event.

Further, tropical cyclone climate contributed to up to 5.1% of the deaths that occurred during the study period — and disproportionately affected vulnerable populations such as Black individuals, infants and older individuals. For instance, for each 1 meter per second increase in wind speed, the cumulative excess mortality risk was about 13.5 per 100,000 individuals among Black individuals versus 4 per 100,000 among white individuals, 50 per 100,000 among infants and 23 per 100,000 among older individuals aged 65 years and older.

The findings indicated that tropical cyclone climate could contribute significantly to mortality risk in the contiguous United States, particularly among vulnerable populations. Further studies could help illuminate the mechanisms behind the delayed mortality effects of these storms and lead to the development of interventions to mitigate the long-term effects of tropical cyclones.

Read more: Nature

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