Opinion: Are we on the cusp of a bird flu pandemic?
The United States may be applying lessons learned during the COVID-19 pandemic to manage the H5N1 avian influenza or bird flu outbreak, according to science writer and essayist David Wallace-Wells.
In an opinion piece published by The New York Times, Mr. Wallace-Wells explained that although the outbreaks began on U.S. dairy farms in March, the virus has been infecting other mammals such as seals and mink since 2022 in Europe. As a result, epidemiologists have signaled the potential of an impending bird flu pandemic.
Across the world, countries are bracing for a potential bird flu pandemic by heightening surveillance and acquiring and developing vaccines to combat the virus, according to an article published in Nature.
Starting in April, there have been several reported cases of bird flu in humans. Chickens and cattle across 48 and 12 states, respectively, have been infected with the virus. However, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggested that the low case numbers in humans pose no threat of a wider outbreak among the general population.
Although bird flu does not appear to be as virulent among humans, previous cases of the disease had about a 50% mortality rate, a figure which may be inflated because of the low number of reported cases and inadequate testing. The Nature article indicated that many cases may have gone undetected. Thus far, among the 13 current cases, there have been zero deaths and the disease has not acquired the mutations needed to allow it to be easily transmissible between humans.
Still, immunologists have warned that a single mutation could alter the trajectory of the virus, allowing it to spread more easily in humans. For instance, mutations making it possible for the virus to infect the respiratory systems of cattle could make it more challenging to contain and increase the likelihood of an outbreak among farm workers.
Mr. Wallace-Wells stated that following the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, a minimalist approach to viruses with outbreak potential has proliferated in the United States. He argued that public health officials should continue to vigilantly monitor the progress of new disease threats, conduct risk assessments and model outbreak predictions to reduce the risk of future pandemics. In addition, vaccination should be implemented in the United States to protect Americans — especially farm workers — if the bird flu virus begins to spread.
According to Nature, European nations have begun to purchase hundreds of thousands of vaccine doses to administer in at-risk farm workers and the general population. The vaccines are expected to protect against H5 strains of influenza A and the bird flu. Researchers are currently developing mRNA vaccines for the bird flu, which are quicker to manufacture and more readily adapted to protect against the most common strains. U.S. health officials are also weighing the possibility of vaccinating cattle. Nonetheless, this effort, though touted as a “phenomenal mitigation effort,” could face challenges in eliciting a protective immune response in livestock.
Read more: The New York Times
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